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Soybean futures rallied over 20 cents on March 30 on rumors that China Sino grain would soon buy U.S. soybeans to replace 3.5 million tonnes sold from its reserve. The rally also reflected renewed Russian bombing in Ukraine, which raised concern over Ukraine's spring planting, including its sunflower crop.
A possible Chinese purchase of about 128 million bushels would cut U.S. 2021-22 ending stocks sharply and absorb acreage expansion. Lower Ukrainian sunflower output would also push buyers toward soyoil and palm oil.
farmprogress.comNaomi BlohmMar 30, 2022After 696 past bullish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, SBO moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 133 past bullish trade events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.8% to +2.3%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
