Ukrainian sunflower seed purchase prices hit a new record, with processors paying about 23,800 to 24,000 UAH per ton. Sunflower oil bids reached $1,400 per ton FOB, and Russian refiners cut exports amid fears of an export duty.
Record seed and oil prices, plus Russian export curbs, tighten global vegetable oil supply and lift competing palm and soybean oil prices, while sunflower meal supply stays constrained.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 133 past bullish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.8% to +2.3%), and +1.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.