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The dollar has appreciated about 10% since the start of 2022 and is at a two-decade high against a basket of currencies, driven by expected Fed hikes and capital flight from the Russia-Ukraine war. The article argues that a stronger dollar could pressure dollar-denominated commodities such as crude oil, gold, corn and sugar.
A stronger dollar makes US-priced feed ingredients more expensive for importers, which can dampen import demand and pressure futures prices.
mckeany-flavell.comPeter ChurchMay 17, 2022After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
