The EIA reported that US refining capacity fell below 18 million barrels per day, the lowest level in eight years, amid record prices. Refining capacity could dip further by the end of 2023, and the hurricane season has just begun.
Shrinking refining capacity limits diesel supply growth and keeps product prices elevated, which raises transport and processing costs for feed buyers.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 56 past neutral report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +2.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.