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The EIA expects US refiner margins to stabilize next year as plant closures reduce supply and gasoline and diesel demand rises. Combined gasoline and diesel margins had slumped to about $17 per barrel from $60.
Refinery capacity cuts tighten distillate supply over time, a mildly supportive factor for diesel and freight costs that feed buyers pay.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.