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The EIA's January 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook analyzes how IMO rules capping marine fuel sulfur at 0.5% from January 1, 2020 will affect markets. Refiners must either upgrade residual oil or process lighter crudes.
The agency expects upward pressure on diesel margins and modest upward pressure on crude prices in late 2019 and early 2020.
Ships shifting to low-sulfur distillate fuel should lift diesel and crude-linked energy costs, raising feed transport and drying costs for feed buyers. The effect is expected to be most acute in 2020 and fade afterward.
eia.govJan 15, 2019After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 131 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.3% to +3.4%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 116 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.0% to +3.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
