The EIA expects U.S. distillate fuel oil consumption to rise in the fall as diesel-powered farm equipment and trucks move the harvest, with demand peaking in mid-October. Harvest timing for 2024 is expected to be on or slightly ahead of schedule, so demand should track the five-year average.
Seasonal harvest diesel demand is a routine, expected pattern that supports diesel prices in the fall, and the outlook is consistent with normal conditions. Feed buyers should expect typical seasonal diesel strength but no unusual shock.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.