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The EIA forecasts US total distillate inventories will end 2025 and 2026 at multiyear lows. Inventories fell 17% in the first half of 2025 due to reduced renewable diesel supply and strong exports, and have since partly rebuilt.
Low distillate stocks raise the risk of price spikes during the autumn harvest and winter heating season, which would increase diesel and freight costs for feed buyers.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.