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The EIA reported that U.S. ULSD inventories fell to 25 days of supply in October, the lowest since 2008, due to strong demand and reduced global production. The New York Harbor ULSD spot price averaged $4.36 per gallon that month.
Refinery capacity losses and seasonal heating demand are cited as causes.
Tight distillate supplies heading into winter raise the risk of high diesel prices, which increase freight and feed production costs. The implication is bullish for diesel.
eia.govNov 10, 2022After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
