
EIA's January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent averaging $61/bbl in 2019 and $65/bbl in 2020, up from year-end 2018 levels but below the 2018 average of $71. It expects non-OPEC supply growth to build global inventories.
A gradual price recovery with rising non-OPEC output points to moderate energy costs for feed mills and transport over the coming year. The forecast is a government outlook, not a new supply shock.
After 41 past neutral report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -4.0% to +1.9%), and +1.8% over 20.
After 56 past neutral report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +2.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.