Short-term policy considerations to respond to Russia-Ukraine crisis disruptions in fertilizer availability and affordability

After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.

• Mar 4, 2022Russian halt to fertilizer exports expected to boost prices, spur shortfalls | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+12.2%
• Nov 15, 2021Soaring fertilizer prices add to inflationary pressures and food security concerns-0.6%
• Apr 16, 2026US will tap tariff funds to calm fertilizer crisis: Rollins | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-3.5%
• Jul 29, 2025EU duties on Russian fertilizers: global and regional implications | GPCA+7.8%
• Sep 24, 2020Corruption and Nepal’s chronic fertiliser crisis - Nepali Times-5.3%

After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.

• Jan 19, 2020Meeting to be held to review the fertilizer prices and availability – PCPA+0.7%
• Nov 15, 2021Soaring fertilizer prices add to inflationary pressures and food security concerns-0.7%
• Apr 16, 2026US will tap tariff funds to calm fertilizer crisis: Rollins | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.7%
• Oct 21, 2022Fertilizer prices ease but is affordability a thing of the past: A deep dive-0.1%
• Dec 2, 2020Phosphate Fertilizers From Morocco and Russia; Scheduling of the Final Phase of Countervailing Duty Investigations | 85 FR 79033+0.9%