◂ Event Timeline

Jul 6, 2018TRADEChina / US

US–China tariffs take effect; China halts US soybean purchases

First tranche of tariffs takes effect; US soybean exports to China collapse and Brazil premiums spike.

SOURCE
Wikipedia

Price reaction & history

SOYno directional readSO FAR1d +4.6%5d -0.7%20d +5.6%

After 1,802 past trade events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.

Nov 1, 2019Soybean Prices Dip As Trump's Chinese Tariffs Take Effect+0.9%
May 9, 2018China cutting US soybean purchases in face of tariffs threat | AP News+0.7%
Aug 1, 2026Tariffs, in the way of larger China purchases of US soybeans: market sources-1.3%
Sep 22, 2023China cuts soybean purchases from the US in August+0.5%
Aug 1, 2019China’s U.S. Soybean Purchases Slump to 2004 Low-1.8%

SBMno directional readSO FAR1d +3.5%5d +1.6%20d +1.4%

After 977 past trade events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

Nov 1, 2019Soybean Prices Dip As Trump's Chinese Tariffs Take Effect+0.4%
Aug 1, 2026Tariffs, in the way of larger China purchases of US soybeans: market sources-0.8%
Sep 22, 2023China cuts soybean purchases from the US in August+0.5%
Dec 10, 2019China steps up US soybean purchases as trade talks drag on+1.6%
Jun 2, 2020China buys U.S. soybeans after halt to U.S. purchases ordered: sources+1.9%

SBOno directional readSO FAR1d +1.5%5d -1.1%20d -1.2%

After 461 past trade events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.2% over 20.

Sep 22, 2025Lack of China Demand Hammers US Soybean Oil Prices - TT-2.6%
Apr 6, 2018Short-Term Palm Boost After China Tariff on US Soybeans: Traders-0.5%
Mar 30, 2022China soy purchase rumors trigger rally+266.2%
Apr 4, 2018CPO to gain from China’s soybean import tariff | The Star-1.5%
Jan 30, 2019What Soybean Politics Tell Us About Argentina and China+0.9%

CORNno directional readSO FAR1d +2.1%5d -1.7%20d -0.3%

After 1,982 past trade events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.4% over 20.

May 30, 2019China Halts U.S. Soybean Purchases, While USMCA Prospects Unfold Under a new Threat of Tariffs on Mexico - Farm Policy News-0.9%
Apr 4, 2018China announces 25% tariff on US soybeans+0.2%
Jun 1, 2020China asks state firms to halt purchases of U.S. soybeans, pork, sources say+2.0%
Sep 13, 2019China's soybean purchase keeps rally alive+3.9%
Apr 21, 2025Report: China halts US corn, soybean orders | World Grain-0.1%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Linked price moves

SOY+4.6%1 period to Jul 6, 20184.4σ
Tariffs taking effect on the same day removed uncertainty, and the 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' short-covering rebound after weeks of tariff-driven selling plausibly drove the sharp one-day rise in US soybean futures.
SOY+4.6%1 period to Jul 6, 20184.4σ
Tariffs taking effect on the same day removed uncertainty, and the 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' short-covering rebound after weeks of tariff-driven selling plausibly drove the sharp one-day rise in US soybean futures.
SBM+3.5%1 period to Jul 6, 20183.2σ
Tariffs taking effect the same day removed uncertainty (a 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' relief bounce) and shifted crush and meal trade flows, supporting US soybean meal prices.
SBM+3.5%1 period to Jul 6, 20183.2σ
Tariffs taking effect the same day removed uncertainty (a 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' relief bounce) and shifted crush and meal trade flows, supporting US soybean meal prices.
SOY-6.9%5 periods to Jul 12, 2018-3.0σ
Chinese 25% tariffs took effect July 6, collapsing US exports to China and shifting demand to Brazil, a bearish trade-flow factor.
CORN-5.2%5 periods to Jul 13, 2018-2.8σ
US-China tariffs taking effect on July 6 and the halt in Chinese soybean purchases weighed on soybeans and spilled over into corn through trade-war sentiment and lower export demand expectations.

SOY · GP ▸

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SBM · GP ▸

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