
USDA data show the global wheat balance for 2022/23 down 10 million tonnes from 2021/22, with beginning stocks the lowest since 2017/18. US production is up nearly 4 million tonnes to 48.5 million, while HRW output is estimated down 21%.
Reductions in the EU, Argentina and Ukraine keep prices firm.
Tightening global wheat stocks and lower HRW and EU output support prices and raise import demand for feed wheat substitutes.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.