Tighter Black Sea wheat supplies disrupt global export market

After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Feb 24, 2023Black Sea grain exports seen moderating global grain prices | World Grain-2.9%
• Aug 28, 2025Global Wheat Stocks Tighten as U.S. Exports Gain Pace+0.1%
• Jul 24, 2020Global wheat surplus shrunk by IGC: Grain Market Daily | AHDB+0.7%
• Jan 15, 2021Corn set for biggest weekly gain since July as global supplies tighten - Markets - Business Recorder+1.0%
• Apr 1, 2021UK feed wheat price rises after surprise in global market - Farmers Weekly+0.2%

After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.

• Jul 24, 2020Global wheat surplus shrunk by IGC: Grain Market Daily | AHDB-0.3%
• Jan 25, 2018Global Supplies of High Protein Wheat Keep Tightening - U.S. Wheat Associates+7.9%
• May 15, 2023Wasde: Tighter supply outlooks as global wheat output returns to norms - Fastmarkets-7.6%
• Sep 29, 2022Headlines Keep the Global Wheat Market Bouncing+1.5%
• Nov 2, 2017U.S. High-Protein Wheat Supplies Tightening - U.S. Wheat Associates+2.8%