
Latin American currencies came off multi-year highs on Thursday as the dollar firmed after falling to a nine-month low the previous day. The Brazilian real rose after the central bank said it might hold interest rates at a six-year high for longer than expected.
The MSCI Latin American currencies index was up 0.6%, after touching its highest level since April 2018 earlier in the session.
A firmer dollar and central bank rate policy shape Brazilian real movements, which affect the competitiveness of Brazilian soybean and corn exports and therefore global feed grain prices. The move is a modest signal for export pricing.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.