
Peru's sol rose on April 13 ahead of a central bank decision, tracking gains across Latin American currencies as the dollar fell after U.S. data raised hopes the Fed was nearing the end of its hiking cycle. Brazil's real hit a ten-month high and the MSCI Latin American currencies index reached its highest level in over eight years.
A weaker dollar and firmer Brazilian real make South American grain and oilseed exports pricier in local terms, which can support global soybean meal and corn prices, while a stronger sol helps Peruvian fishmeal producers.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.