
The ECB raised its main rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%, its highest in 22 years, while the Fed had paused the same week. The ECB raised its inflation forecasts, with 2023 headline inflation now projected at 5.4%.
Tighter euro-zone policy and a firmer euro can reduce the dollar cost of commodity imports for Europe while weighing on demand expectations. The direct impact on feed grain prices is small.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.