
The ECB confirmed it will raise its key interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting after euro area inflation hit a record 8.1% in May. It also expects a further hike in September and downgraded its growth forecasts due to the war in Ukraine and sanctions.
Tighter ECB policy strengthens the euro relative to some currencies at the margin but raises recession risk in Europe, which can soften feed demand and livestock output.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.