End of European Central Bank’s reign as dovish bastion likely to spark rebound for euro

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Apr 30, 2026European Central Bank keeps rates on hold as inflation jumps+0.5%
• Mar 6, 2024Euro is back on the scene for global central banks+0.5%
• May 31, 2020The euro rallies as the European Union addresses fiscal flaws | The National+1.7%
• Feb 28, 2020EUR/USD: Central banks to favor the euro - Forex Crunch+2.0%
• Sep 13, 2019Euro surges as ECB rate cut seems to mark last stimulus move | The National-0.3%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Mar 19, 2020Fed opens dollar swap lines for 9 additional foreign central banks+0.5%
• Mar 6, 2024Euro is back on the scene for global central banks-0.6%
• May 31, 2020The euro rallies as the European Union addresses fiscal flaws | The National-1.8%
• Feb 28, 2020EUR/USD: Central banks to favor the euro - Forex Crunch-0.5%
• Sep 13, 2019Euro surges as ECB rate cut seems to mark last stimulus move | The National+0.2%