
European vegetable oil prices slumped on June 21 after reports circulated that the EPA would reduce rapeseed and soybean oil volumes in the biodiesel mix. Sunflower oil fell 4-4.5% and rapeseed oil dropped about €30 per tonne, while CME soyoil hit limit down.
Lower expected biofuel blending demand for vegetable oils pushed prices down across Black Sea and European markets, with the drop tied to the EPA decision.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.