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Wheat futures reversed a prior rally, losing almost all gains from the previous week as forecasts improved for US corn states, and rains fell over the EU, Russia and Australia. December SRW fell more than 100 cents in six sessions after rallying about 115 cents, while HRW held its trading range.
Improved rainfall forecasts reduce production risk across major exporters, easing wheat and corn prices. Lower feed grain costs help buyers, though the market remains sensitive to weather.
farmonline.com.auNathan Cattle, Clear Grain ExchangeJul 28, 2023After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 70 past bearish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Wheat futures gave back nearly all the prior week's gains as weather forecasts improved and rains fell in the EU, Russia and Australia, which reduced supply concerns; HRW was more range-bound, so the link is partial.
Improved forecasts for US corn states and rains elsewhere erased the prior grain rally, with wheat reversing sharply and dragging corn lower.
