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Strong northern yields in Queensland and northern New South Wales are expected to lift Australian wheat production toward 30 million tonnes, close to average. Southern South Australia is likely to remain below average but not a full drought.
A near-average Australian wheat crop eases the tight supply outlook from the south and adds export availability, which weighs on wheat prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.