
Ikon Commodities estimates Australia's winter crop at more than 50 million tonnes, with canola at a record 5.2 million tonnes. The USDA raised its Australian wheat estimate to 30 million tonnes, up 5.3% on its previous report, citing abundant precipitation.
A large Australian harvest adds export supply just as Canadian and US Pacific Northwest shortfalls are tightening markets, which weighs on wheat, barley and canola prices. The USDA upgrade confirms the bearish outlook.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.