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Crop forecasters are lifting Australian wheat estimates to near-record levels of just under 30 million tonnes despite flood damage in central NSW and frost in Western Australia. Queensland is performing strongly, and Victoria is expected to improve markedly on last year.
Near-record Australian wheat output expands export supply and is likely to keep Australian wheat prices under pressure.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.