Australian planting is gathering pace after good April rains in South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales, while Western Australia and Queensland remain drier. Analysts hope production will rebound from three drought-hit years and allow a solid export surplus.
Expectations of a recovered Australian crop and renewed exports add to global wheat and barley supply, which is bearish for prices if the planting rains continue.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.