Raw sugar futures in New York fell 5.6% on Monday, October 26, arabica coffee for March delivery fell 2.8%, and soybeans also declined. The moves came after Brazil's election result, with no change in crop conditions in Brazil's fields.
The selloff was driven by currency and political repricing following Lula's election win rather than supply, so the price pressure reflects financial flows and Brazilian real movements that can reverse, affecting soybean and meal values tied to Brazilian export expectations.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.