EMFX: Carry and Domestic Fundamentals Rather Than the USD

After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Nov 29, 2016FxWirePro: What else is appending impetus to USD/CNY appreciation than PBoC mechanism? Is it rate differentials and/or Trump factor? | EconoTimes-0.4%
• May 5, 2022US Fed rate hike: how can China stem capital outflow and prop up the yuan? | South China Morning Post+1.7%
• Dec 5, 2022Renminbi movements: it's more than the trade and current account - OMFIF-0.9%
• Jul 22, 2024China stocks drop after party meeting, yuan falls on rate cuts - The Pound Hub-0.3%
• Jun 4, 2023China's yuan may slip further to aid economic recovery - analysts+0.6%

After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Dec 13, 2022Latam FX: Fiscal fundamentals | articles | ING THINK-0.5%
• Dec 23, 2022USD/BRL: Fiscal fundamentals continue to be fragile – Rabobank: Analytics and Market news from 23 December 2022 15:34+2.3%
• Sep 15, 2025Latam FX Talking: Carry trade remains the dominant theme | articles | ING THINK-0.5%
• Apr 25, 2026Goldman Cuts USD/BRL Outlook as Real Gains on Trade, Carry and Risk Appetite-0.9%
• Oct 17, 2017BRL: Can flows pick up the baton from carry? – Deutsche Bank — Octa+1.5%