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The Fed raised rates 50 basis points to a 0.75 to 1 percent target range, its sharpest hike in over two decades, with more tightening expected. Analysts warn capital will flow back to the US and pressure the yuan, while the PBOC kept its policy rate unchanged and lifted the yuan midpoint.
Capital outflows and yuan depreciation weigh on Chinese feed demand purchasing power, and a firmer dollar tends to pressure dollar-priced grain and meal values.
scmp.comFrank TangMay 5, 2022After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Fed's 50bp hike on May 4 and signals of further tightening widened the policy divergence with the PBOC, pushing capital toward USD assets and weakening CNY.
The Fed's 50bp hike and expectations of more tightening widen policy divergence with the PBOC, driving capital outflow and dollar strength that pressure the yuan.
The Fed's 50bp hike and expected further tightening widen the rate differential and encourage capital outflows, which pressure the yuan, though it predates the move by a few days.
