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Fitch Ratings raised its price assumptions for ammonia, urea and phosphate rock, citing year-to-date prices and higher gas costs. It expects around 2 million tonnes of Russian exports to return via a Baltic terminal in 2H 2024.
A ratings agency lifting long-term fertilizer forecasts reflects firmer gas-linked costs and limited new capacity, supporting higher nitrogen and phosphate price expectations for buyers.
mgahv.inJan 30, 2024After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, DAP moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
