
USDA lowered its U.S. soybean export forecast as cheaper Brazilian beans take share in key markets, yet still raised U.S. soybean and corn ending stocks. Brazil's soybean production was cut by 1 million tonnes to 156 million tonnes, a smaller reduction than many traders expected.
Lower U.S. export demand combined with Brazilian competition points to bearish soybean and soybean meal pricing through the seasonal shift to South American supply.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.