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China remains behind the pace needed to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end, with USDA data showing confirmed sales of 6.4 million tons since October. Officials insist the December 31 deadline has not moved, and a 10% retaliatory tariff keeps private Chinese importers away from U.S. beans.
Slow Chinese purchases reduce near-term export demand for U.S. soybeans, and uncertainty over the deadline keeps buyers cautious. Any sign of a rush to meet the pledge would support prices, while a slip into 2026 would weigh on them.
agri-pulse.comOliver WardDec 23, 2025After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
