
USDA projects the US agricultural trade deficit will reach $32 billion in fiscal 2024, up from $16.7 billion in FY23. China's ag import projection was cut by $1 billion to $27.7 billion, largely due to Brazilian competition, and US soybean exports to China are down 23% and corn exports down 67% year to date.
Lower Chinese purchases of US soybeans and corn, displaced by Brazilian supply, weaken US export demand and pressure US soybean and corn prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.