Farm groups cheer aid, but want end to trade war

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 3, 2018Ag groups see trade, farm bill among top challenges in 2018 | 2018-01-02 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.1%
• May 3, 2017U.S. farm groups seek trade stability amid turbulence over NAFTA | 2017-05-03 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.8%
• Aug 1, 2018New farm bill offers limited help in case of prolonged trade war | 2018-07-31 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-1.6%
• Jul 1, 2020Cheers for USMCA, but ag concerns persist | 2020-06-30 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+1.2%
• May 30, 2024Daybreak: Trade deficit grows as China sales weaken | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-3.0%

After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jan 3, 2018Ag groups see trade, farm bill among top challenges in 2018 | 2018-01-02 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.9%
• May 3, 2017U.S. farm groups seek trade stability amid turbulence over NAFTA | 2017-05-03 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.5%
• Aug 1, 2018New farm bill offers limited help in case of prolonged trade war | 2018-07-31 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+7.9%
• Jul 1, 2020Cheers for USMCA, but ag concerns persist | 2020-06-30 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+1.9%
• May 30, 2024Daybreak: Trade deficit grows as China sales weaken | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-4.0%

After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Mar 4, 2025USDA Prepares to Protect Farmers in a Trade War - AgWeb+0.1%
• Sep 24, 2018Trade war lowers China’s grain imports | 2018-09-24 | World Grain-0.1%
• May 13, 2019Escalating trade war could dim global demand for commodities-0.4%
• Oct 9, 2026China Needs $1.2B/Week in U.S. Ag Buys to Hit Trade Deal — Agribusiness Wire+4.0%
• Jul 9, 2020UAC: Ukrainian grain exports are close to pre-war levels | Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation+0.7%

After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.

• Apr 26, 2017US rice farmers wary about Vietnam’s incursion into Mexican market | 2017-04-26 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.4%
• Oct 25, 2017Mexican grain buyers haven’t given up on the US … yet | 2017-10-25 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-2.7%
• Jan 18, 2023US rice farmers are losing Mexico, their largest foreign market | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+1.6%
• Jul 19, 2021US revives WTO grain import quota case as China lags behind in commitments to buy American farm goods | South China Morning Post+2.9%
• Dec 12, 2025COMMODITIES 2026: India's surplus rice supply to weigh on global prices, reshape trade in Q1 | S&P Global-2.5%