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S&P Global Platts projects India's 2025-26 rice production at 151.8 million mt, up 800,000 mt year on year, after record Kharif output. Buyers are expected to shift toward Indian origin, and government paddy procurement will keep supply tight until mid-January.
A large, price-competitive Indian supply is likely to pressure Thai, Vietnamese and Pakistani rice prices and reroute export flows in early 2026.
spglobal.comArif Islam, Tanya RanaDec 12, 2025After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
