
Global Trade Review interviews Peter Clubb of the International Grains Council about the rice market after India lifted its 2023 export ban late last year. Clubb expects 2024/25 production growth of about 2.1%, roughly double the prior five-year average, with better weather in key growing regions.
Rice prices that spiked in 2023 are expected to fall.
Renewed Indian export supply and better output growth point to lower global rice prices, which weighs on rough rice values for buyers.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.