
CoBank reports US rough rice prices have fallen 20% year on year, more than corn (down 7%), wheat (down 1%) and soybeans (up 5%). It attributes the drop to a flood of Indian rice pushing world prices below production costs and to Mexico diversifying away from US rice, with rice export commitments down 23% and Mexico commitments down 49%.
Weak global rice prices and lost export demand keep US rough rice under pressure, with limited upside for growers unless Mexican or other buyers return.
After 141 past bearish trade events, RICE moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.