Ukrainian grain exports are close to pre-war levels, according to UAC analyst Artem Havrysh. Ukraine exported about 4 to 5 million tonnes of agricultural products per month, against 6 million before the war.
Sea ports handled about 87% of agricultural exports, and farmers sold their residual stocks from 2022 and 2023 by June 2024.
A recovery in Ukrainian export capacity adds supply to world wheat and corn markets, which is bearish for prices.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.