
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack warned that restricting foreign biofuel feedstocks such as used cooking oil for the 45Z clean fuels tax credit could prompt retaliation against US farm exports. More than 40 lawmakers have asked Treasury to limit 45Z eligibility to domestic feedstocks.
Possible retaliation could hit US corn, soybean and pork export demand, while domestic-only feedstock rules would raise demand for US soybean oil and reduce imported waste oil use.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.