US beef exports fell 1.3% year over year in February and are down 2.6% year to date, with declines to Japan, South Korea and China/Hong Kong. Beef imports rose 23.8% in February and 31.9% year to date, led by Brazil and Australia.
Rising beef imports add supply to the US market while exports shrink, which weighs on domestic cattle and beef prices. Brazil's over-quota shipments are expected to moderate after the early-year surge.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.