
US beef exports in July 2024 fell 7.7% year over year to 257.7 million pounds, with year-to-date exports down 2.9%. Cattle prices turned negative in a selloff whose cause was unclear, while feeder cattle imports from Mexico surged.
Weaker export demand and rising Mexican feeder imports add supply pressure on US cattle, pointing to softer cattle prices.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.