
The US will resume limited imports of Mexican cattle from August 24 through Douglas, Arizona, with New Mexico crossings to follow later. Each animal will be inspected, and the USDA may pause imports if the screwworm spreads.
Mexico previously supplied more than 1 million cattle a year.
The reopening adds feeder supply to a market with record beef prices and a tight herd, which weighs on feeder cattle values. The conditional nature of the plan leaves room for renewed restrictions.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.