
The USDA will allow Mexican cattle imports to resume after a yearlong ban imposed to stop the spread of New World screwworm. A phased reopening will begin at the Douglas, Arizona port of entry starting in August.
Restored Mexican feeder supply eases the US cattle shortage that has driven record beef prices, so feeder and live cattle prices face bearish pressure.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.