
Reuters reports that the US has reopened its border to Mexican cattle, initially through Arizona with New Mexico ports to follow. Mexico opened a sterile fly plant in Chiapas, and a US plant is due by spring 2027.
USDA counts 46 screwworm cases in Texas and New Mexico, with two active.
Added feeder cattle supply from Mexico is bearish for feeder and live cattle prices, but renewed screwworm risk could tighten supply or trigger further border restrictions.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.