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The USDA is reopening the border to Mexican cattle in a phased plan starting August 24 at Douglas, Arizona, with up to 80,000 head per month expected eventually. Live and feeder cattle futures fell sharply after the announcement.
The ban had contributed to record-high beef prices.
Futures reacted immediately to the expected rise in feeder supply, showing the bearish price mechanism. The pace of the phased reopening will determine how much pressure persists.
wisfarmer.comColleen KottkeJul 29, 2026After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
