
Cattle futures fell on Monday after reports that Mexico's agriculture minister would meet Secretary Rollins about reopening the border to live cattle imports. Live cattle closed $6 to $9 lower and feeder cattle hit their expanded daily limit of $13.75 lower.
Traders are pricing in the risk of more Mexican feeder supply entering the U.S. and the uncertainty around policy. The sharp drop shows how sensitive the feeder complex is to border headlines.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.