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Oklahoma State economist Derrell Peel discusses a study estimating that eliminating U.S. beef imports and exports would cause a $129 billion net loss to the feeder cattle industry and about $68 billion to the fed industry. He says the loss would lead to lower cattle values and a smaller long-run industry.
The study shows that U.S. cattle prices depend on trade access, and a loss of export or import outlets would reduce feeder and fed cattle values. The result is a long-term structural contraction rather than a short-term price move.
oklahomafarmreport.comAimee CarlisleOct 12, 2022After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
