US cattle imports rose 19% in the first half of 2024 to 1.12 million head, mostly from Mexico, as the US herd is the smallest since the 1950s. Imports of fresh and frozen beef also grew, with USDA forecasting more imports in coming years.
Rising live and beef imports supply tight US herds at the margin, which may cap cattle price gains even as domestic supplies remain short.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.