US beef exports fell 4.4% in 2019, with declines to Japan, Hong Kong, Mexico and Canada, while South Korea rose 7.1%. Beef imports rose 2.0% in 2019, led by higher volumes from Canada, Australia and Mexico.
Weaker export demand leaves more beef domestically, which pressures cattle prices, while rising imports add supply to the US market.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.