
USDA projected a 8% rise in US soybean supply for 2024/25, with production at 4.45 billion bushels and ending stocks at 445 million bushels. Global production is forecast at a record 422.3 million tonnes, led by Brazil.
Larger US and global supplies and a lower forecast farm price point to bearish pressure on soybean and meal prices for the coming marketing year.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.