
USDA's July WASDE raised 2018-19 U.S. soybean ending stocks by about 25% to 580 million bushels, with exports reduced by 250 million bushels from the June report. Corn ending stocks declined slightly, and yield expectations were unchanged.
The larger soybean carryout reinforces bearish pressure on soybean prices, while the slightly tighter corn outlook gives modest support to corn.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.